The Mike T Opinion – Diaz vs. Condit Breakdown

By: Mike Thorwart

Ever since the main event from UFC 143 was awarded to Carlos Condit, the talk has been non-stop about who really won that fight. My thoughts on the entire fight has actually been changing back and forth from Saturday to today.

I have watched this fight a few times now and to be fair and honest, I can see both sides and their arguments. However, when I look at the stats and facts, I can only end up leaning one way.

When I watched the fight live, I actually had Diaz winning the first two rounds, Condit winning rounds 3 and 4 and finally I gave the last round to Diaz due to the take down and getting Condit’s back for the last minute and a half of the round.

I watched it a second time because of all the chatter that was going down on Twitter, Facebook, etc. After watching it a second time, I still scored the fight for Diaz at that point in time. The reason I had scored it for Diaz both times was simply because of the agression and pace that Nick was setting. He was stalking down Condit and in my opinion Condit was doing a lot of “running away” and just hitting Diaz with “baby leg kicks” as Diaz said in his post fight interview.

At this point I had spoken with some friends and others on Twitter about this fight. Quite a few people were still saying Condit won this fight hands down as they thought he just implemented his game plan properly and basically just hit Diaz more times then Diaz hit him.

So, I went out to the stats for this fight on FightMetric which you can look at by clicking here. After looking as to how they scored it round by round I went back once again and watched the fight much more closely this time.

Now according to FightMetric, Condit outscored Diaz in striking in the 1st round 30-28 in overall strikes. In the 2nd round, Diaz outscored Condit 35-29 in overall strikes. Condit would then outscore Diaz in the last three rounds in strikes, 33-24, 37-11 and 30-19. Now, according to those stats, Condit won the striking game in every single round except the 2nd. Now, if you give Diaz the 5th round due to the take down and submission attempt, according to points landed, you can technically only give (at the most) Diaz the 2nd and 5th round which would give Condit the unanimous decision at 48-47.

After studying the first round a little closer, Condit may have out struck Diaz in that round but it was only by 2 strikes over all. Now, out of Condit’s 30 strikes landed, 16 of those were leg kicks, 7 were body shots and 7 were head shots. Out of Diaz’ 28 strikes landed, 16 were head shots, 11 body shots and 1 leg kick. If you look at the significant strikes for round one, Condit won with a 29-23 significant strikes score. However, he had no significant head strikes and only two significant body shots so that means his significant strikes were mostly leg kicks which if you watch the fight again, had no effect on Diaz, to which he showed anyways.

Diaz was obviously more active in the 1st round by constantly trying to chase down Condit and stalking him. In a nut shell, Octagon control in which the judges are suppose to factor in on the scoring along with effective striking, effective grappling and effective aggressiveness.

In round one there was no grappling so you can remove that from the scoring. That leaves effective striking, Octagon control and effective aggressiveness. I am here to tell you right now that Diaz won both the Octagon control and aggressiveness in the 1st round but he didn’t win the striking according to the points. But the striking numbers overall were so close that wouldn’t you factor in the other two criteria’s to base your decision? Who knows.

My overall thought on this fight as it stands now is that it could have very possibly been labeled a draw. I can say one thing, it certainly wasn’t a 49-46 as two of the judges scored it.

When it comes to a rematch, I say let it happen. Shogun got his immediate rematch with Machida when everyone thought the decision should have gone the other way. Sonnen would have gotten his rematch if he wouldn’t have been suspended and there was no decision as Sonnen was submitted. So why not right?

I am usually not a fan of rematches as I think if you lose, you lose and you have to work your way back again. But, in this case such as the Machida/Shogun case, it was so close that I feel it should happen again. I’m hear to say that I feel Condit won just by me looking at the stats. However, when you take everything into consideration, if it went the other way, well…. I would probably be typing this same thing actually. So either way you look at it, make the rematch, settle it and move on.

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